ArbTail-risk hedging via predictions
Buy tail-event contracts cheap as hedge for portfolio
Source: bloomberg.com
2016 Trump upset markets
Specific CasesMulti
2016 markets underestimated Trump
Source: encyclopedia
2020 election Polymarket Biden
Specific CasesMulti
2020 PM correctly predicted Biden
Source: encyclopedia
2024 election cycle peak
VolumeMulti
2024 election cycle peak volume
Source: Arxiv
Augur fully decentralized
PlatformsMulti
Augur fully decentralized fork-based
Source: Arxiv
Automated market makers AMM PM
TheoryMulti
AMM constant-product for PMs
Source: encyclopedia
Award show winners
Pop CultureBoth
Oscars Emmys Grammys winners
Source: defirate.com
Award winners Oscars Emmys
MarketsMulti
Award show contracts
Source: encyclopedia
BTC price-by-date binary
CryptoBoth
Trade BTC price thresholds by specific dates; alternative to options
Source: defirate.com
Box-office gross
MarketsMulti
Movie open weekend contracts
Source: encyclopedia
Brexit referendum 2016
Specific CasesMulti
Betting markets vs polls Brexit divergence
Source: encyclopedia
CFTC ruling Kalshi election bets
VolumeMulti
Federal court allowed Kalshi election contracts 2024
Source: Sherwood
CPI inflation print
MarketsMulti
CPI print contracts
Source: encyclopedia
CPI/PPI/NFP point-estimate ranges
MacroBoth
Trade ranges around economic data; alternative to options bet
Source: federalreserve.gov
Cabinet appointments
MarketsMulti
Cabinet pick contracts
Source: Bloomberg
Cabinet/appointment binary
PoliticsBoth
Trade specific cabinet nominee confirmations
Source: bloomberg.com
Calibration check
StrategiesMulti
Are 60% events occurring 60% of time?
Source: encyclopedia
Carbon-tax outcome hedge
StrategiesMulti
Hedge potential carbon-tax legislation
Source: encyclopedia
Categorical vs binary contracts
TheoryMulti
Categorical contracts span outcome space
Source: encyclopedia
Chen 2025 trading behavior
StudiesMulti
On-chain political-trading behavior study
Source: Arxiv
Climate prediction markets
FutureMulti
Climate-event PMs growing
Source: encyclopedia
Combine PM + options strategy
StrategiesMulti
PM signals option-trade direction
Source: encyclopedia
Conditional contracts
StrategiesMulti
Conditional contracts (X if Y wins)
Source: encyclopedia
Conditional policy markets
FutureMulti
Conditional PMs for policy decisions
Source: encyclopedia
Continuous double auction CDA
TheoryMulti
CDA traditional orderbook
Source: encyclopedia
Convergence trade close to expiry
StrategiesMulti
Inter-market convergence near expiry
Source: Sherwood
Corporate prediction markets internal
FutureMulti
Internal corp PMs (HP Google etc)
Source: encyclopedia
Cross-platform arb (Kalshi vs Polymarket)
ArbBoth
Same event different prices = arb opportunity (mind fees)
Source: next.io
Cross-platform pricing news
StrategiesMulti
Discrepancies = news arrived asymmetrically
Source: encyclopedia
Crypto.com Sports prediction
PlatformsMulti
Crypto.com sports + event prediction
Source: encyclopedia
Custody risk USDC vs USD
RisksMulti
USDC custody on Polymarket
Source: encyclopedia
DARPA Policy Analysis Market 2003
Specific CasesMulti
DARPA terror-prediction market scrapped
Source: encyclopedia
Decision markets policy
TheoryMulti
Decision markets - condition on action
Source: encyclopedia
Drift BET sports prediction
PlatformsMulti
Drift BET on-chain prediction
Source: encyclopedia
ETH ETF approval binary
CryptoBoth
SEC approval probability with regulatory news catalysts
Source: defirate.com
Earnings beats company X
MarketsMulti
Earnings-beat / miss contracts
Source: Bloomberg
Election hedge for portfolio
StrategiesMulti
Hedge equity portfolio for election outcome
Source: encyclopedia
Event hedging real-world exposure
StrategiesMulti
Hedge real-world exposure via PM contracts
Source: encyclopedia
Exchange-specific user restrictions
RisksMulti
Polymarket no US Kalshi no foreign
Source: Binance
FOMC rate hike probability
MacroBoth
Trade rate decision odds vs Fed Funds futures implied prob
Source: federalreserve.gov
FTX prediction defunct
PlatformsMulti
FTX prediction market closed 2022
Source: encyclopedia
FX hedge via prediction
StrategiesMulti
Hedge currency for political outcome
Source: encyclopedia
Favorite bias rate convergence
StrategiesMulti
Favorites underpriced near event
Source: encyclopedia
Fed meeting hike/hold/cut
MarketsMulti
Fed FOMC decision contracts
Source: Bloomberg
Foreign election binaries
PoliticsBoth
UK GE Italy/France/Germany/India elections trade
Source: bloomberg.com
Frenchies whale Trump $30M
Specific CasesMulti
French Whale 4 wallets won $50M+ 2024 election
Source: encyclopedia
GDP growth quarter ranges
MacroBoth
Quarterly GDP range contracts; pre-release positioning
Source: federalreserve.gov
GDP recession
MarketsMulti
Recession-by-date contracts
Source: encyclopedia
Geopolitics war/peace
MarketsMulti
War / ceasefire contracts
Source: Bloomberg
Governor races
MarketsMulti
Gubernatorial race contracts
Source: encyclopedia
Hayek information aggregation
TheoryMulti
Hayek - markets aggregate dispersed information
Source: encyclopedia
Hollywood Stock Exchange MTV
Specific CasesMulti
HSX play-money movie predictions
Source: encyclopedia
Hurricane landfall binary
WeatherBoth
Trade hurricane landfall by region/date
Source: bloomberg.com
InTrade defunct 2013
Specific CasesMulti
InTrade Irish PM closed 2013
Source: encyclopedia
Insider information edge
StrategiesMulti
Insiders may have info edge (campaign staffers)
Source: NPR
Insider-trading concerns
RisksMulti
Insider trading concerns regulators
Source: NPR
Insight Prediction crypto
PlatformsMulti
Insight Prediction USDC-funded
Source: FightMatrix
Insurance-like applications
FutureMulti
PMs as informal insurance
Source: encyclopedia
Inter-exchange arb Polymarket Kalshi
StrategiesMulti
Same contract on different exchanges
Source: QuantPedia
Iowa Electronic Markets pioneer
Specific CasesMulti
IEM University of Iowa academic precursor
Source: encyclopedia
Israel-Hamas Russia-Ukraine
MarketsMulti
Active conflict contracts
Source: encyclopedia
KYC requirements Kalshi
RisksMulti
Kalshi KYC required Polymarket none
Source: Binance
Kalshi $1 flat per trade
StrategiesMulti
Kalshi flat $1/trade fee
Source: FightMatrix
Kalshi $11B valuation late 2025
VolumeMulti
Kalshi $11B valuation 2025 raise
Source: Bloomberg
Kalshi $2B/week pre-Super Bowl
VolumeMulti
Kalshi >$2B/week pre-Super Bowl 2026
Source: Bloomberg
Kalshi CFTC-regulated
PlatformsMulti
Kalshi CFTC-regulated DCM
Source: Bloomberg
Kalshi position limits
StrategiesMulti
Kalshi position-limits per market
Source: encyclopedia
LMSR Logarithmic Market Scoring
TheoryMulti
LMSR market maker Hanson
Source: encyclopedia
Late-money flow signal
StrategiesMulti
Late-stage flows = informed signal
Source: encyclopedia
Liquidity provision LP rewards
TheoryMulti
LPs earn fees for providing liquidity
Source: encyclopedia
Lo-volume contract scalp
LiquidityBoth
Smaller contracts have wider spreads but less efficient pricing
Source: defirate.com
Long underdog mispriced
StrategiesMulti
Long underdog if probability gap > fees
Source: Sherwood
Long-shot bias underdog OS
StrategiesMulti
Underdog overpriced (long-shot bias)
Source: encyclopedia
M&A deal close
MarketsMulti
Will deal close by date contracts
Source: encyclopedia
Manifold Markets play money
PlatformsMulti
Manifold play-money market
Source: encyclopedia
Manipulation impact estimation
StudiesMulti
Estimating manipulation impact on PM prices
Source: Arxiv
Manipulation thin-volume markets
RisksMulti
Thin volume markets manipulable
Source: Arxiv
Manski belief vs probability
TheoryMulti
Manski - PM prices ≠ probabilities
Source: encyclopedia
Mention markets short bursts
StrategyBoth
Trade live mention markets during congressional hearings/debates
Source: bloomberg.com
Movie box office milestones
Pop CultureBoth
Opening weekend gross thresholds
Source: defirate.com
NBA NFL NHL MLB game outcomes
MarketsMulti
Single-game outcome contracts
Source: encyclopedia
NBA championship futures
SportsBoth
Long-running championship odds with arb across platforms
Source: defirate.com
NFL game winners (binary)
SportsBoth
Trade game winners with edge over sportsbook lines
Source: defirate.com
NYC snowfall by date binary
WeatherBoth
Trade snowstorm probability vs weather forecast models
Source: bloomberg.com
Polymarket $8B valuation 2025
VolumeMulti
Polymarket $8B valuation 2025 raise
Source: Bloomberg
Polymarket 2024 US election $3.6B
VolumeMulti
Polymarket $3.6B+ 2024 US election volume
Source: Arxiv
Polymarket fee 2% winnings
StrategiesMulti
2% Polymarket fee on winnings
Source: FightMatrix
Polymarket hybrid-decentralized
PlatformsMulti
Polymarket off-chain orderbook + on-chain settle
Source: Arxiv
Polymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictIt
StudiesMulti
Cross-platform price-discovery study Ng et al 2026
Source: Arxiv
Polymarket whales position tracking
StrategiesMulti
Track large Polymarket addresses
Source: encyclopedia
PredictIt $850 cap arb edge
StrategiesMulti
$850 cap distorts prices = arb edge
Source: FightMatrix
PredictIt 10% profit + 5% withdraw
StrategiesMulti
PredictIt high friction 15% combined
Source: FightMatrix
PredictIt nonprofit research
PlatformsMulti
PredictIt small-cap research market
Source: FightMatrix
Price-discovery accuracy
StudiesMulti
PM price discovery vs polls comparison
Source: QuantPedia
Recession-by-date binary
MacroBoth
Trade recession probability by specific date
Source: federalreserve.gov
Resolution-source risk
RisksMulti
Resolution-source ambiguity in question phrasing
Source: encyclopedia
Robinhood event contracts
PlatformsMulti
Robinhood event contract integration 2025
Source: encyclopedia
SCOTUS ruling timing
MarketsMulti
Court ruling timing contracts
Source: encyclopedia
Senate House majority
MarketsMulti
Senate / House control contracts
Source: encyclopedia
Senate/House control binary
PoliticsBoth
Trade Congressional control probabilities; volume peaks pre-election
Source: bloomberg.com
Sirolly market integrity 2025
StudiesMulti
Market-integrity research on Polymarket
Source: Arxiv
Slivkoff naive volume aggregation
StudiesMulti
Slivkoff 2025 - naive aggregation double-counts
Source: Arxiv
Smart-contract risk Polymarket
RisksMulti
SC bug could lock funds
Source: encyclopedia
Sports championships
MarketsMulti
Super Bowl NBA Champions contracts
Source: Bloomberg
Sports player props
MarketsMulti
Player-prop contracts
Source: encyclopedia
Sportsbook vs prediction market arb
ArbBoth
Compare sportsbook lines to prediction prices for cross-arb
Source: defirate.com
Spot BTC ETF flows
CryptoBoth
Trade weekly inflow thresholds for spot BTC ETFs
Source: defirate.com
Spread > total fees = arb
StrategiesMulti
Arb if spread covers TC + fees + withdrawal
Source: QuantPedia
Sum of opposing < 1 - fees
StrategiesMulti
Sum of complementary < 1-fees = arb
Source: QuantPedia
Supreme Court nominees
MarketsMulti
SCOTUS nominee contracts
Source: encyclopedia
Tariff outcome hedge
StrategiesMulti
Hedge tariff-policy outcomes
Source: encyclopedia
Temperature high/low ranges
WeatherBoth
Trade specific city temperature ranges by date
Source: bloomberg.com
Trump 2024 Polymarket lead 7+ pts
Specific CasesMulti
Trump led Harris 7+ pts on Polymarket pre-election
Source: Sherwood
Tweet count of person X
MarketsMulti
Tweet-count contracts (Trump etc)
Source: Bloomberg
UMA disputes timing
RisksMulti
UMA dispute window can delay payout
Source: encyclopedia
UMA oracle for Polymarket
RisksMulti
Polymarket uses UMA optimistic oracle
Source: encyclopedia
US Presidential election binary
PoliticsBoth
Trade probability of party/candidate winning; arb between platforms
Source: bloomberg.com
US Presidential elections
MarketsMulti
Presidential winner contract major liquidity
Source: Sherwood
Vote-share specific contracts
StrategiesMulti
Specific vote-share or margin contracts
Source: encyclopedia
Wash trading double-counting
RisksMulti
Wash trading inflates Polymarket vol
Source: Arxiv
Weather temperature city X
MarketsMulti
Weather contracts on Kalshi
Source: Bloomberg
Wisdom of crowds
TheoryMulti
Surowiecki wisdom-of-crowds theory
Source: encyclopedia
Wolfers and Zitzewitz survey
TheoryMulti
Wolfers Zitzewitz 2004 PM survey
Source: encyclopedia
Word usage on earnings call
Pop CultureBoth
Trade specific words being used on earnings calls (e.g. AI)
Source: bloomberg.com
World Cup binary
SportsBoth
Trade national team WC outcomes; long-duration position
Source: defirate.com
An encyclopedia of publicly documented strategies for education. YCAI does not recommend, endorse, or trade any of these. Not investment advice.