ABCD oligopoly grain trading
TradingMulti
ABCD oligopoly ADM Bunge Cargill Louis Dreyfus
Source: encyclopedia
ADM Archer Daniels Midland
TradingLong
ADM Archer Daniels Midland grain trading
Source: encyclopedia
AGCO Corp AGCO
ProducersMulti
AGCO Corp Massey Ferguson Fendt
Source: encyclopedia
Acreage report (March)
GrainsBoth
USDA Prospective Plantings (late March)
Source: stonex.com
African swine fever China
LivestockLong
ASF in China spurred US pork exports
Source: encyclopedia
Ag commodity ETFs (DBA TAGS)
ApplicationLong
Liquid ag commodity exposure for retail
Source: encyclopedia
Agribusiness stocks (DE ADM)
EquitiesLong
Long ag equities on commodity bull cycles
Source: encyclopedia
Avoid contango ag futures
Carry TradeRisk
Contango erodes long futures positions
Source: quantpedia.com
Bayer BAYRY Monsanto 2018
SeedsMulti
Bayer BAYRY acquired Monsanto 2018 seeds
Source: encyclopedia
Brazilian frost coffee long
SoftsLong
Long coffee on Brazilian winter frost news
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
Bunge BG global trader
TradingLong
Bunge BG Bunge-Viterra merger 2024 grain
Source: encyclopedia
Butter (BT) futures
DairyBoth
Butter futures - food industry hedging
Source: cmegroup.com
CF Industries CF nitrogen
FertilizerLong
CF Industries CF nitrogen + ammonia
Source: encyclopedia
CNH Industrial Case New Holland
ProducersMulti
CNH Industrial CNH Case + New Holland
Source: encyclopedia
COFCO China largest
TradingMulti
COFCO Corporation Chinese state largest
Source: encyclopedia
CORN corn ETN
Trend FollowingLong
Corn-tracking ETN
Source: encyclopedia
COT positioning livestock
LivestockBoth
Track speculator/commercial positions
Source: quantpedia.com
COW iPath Livestock
ETFsMulti
COW iPath Bloomberg Livestock subindex
Source: encyclopedia
COW livestock ETN
Trend FollowingLong
Cattle/livestock-tracking ETN
Source: encyclopedia
Calendar spread Mar-May corn
GrainsBoth
Inter-month corn calendar spread
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
Canola (ICE) vs soybean oil
GrainsBoth
Canola futures vs soybean oil
Source: libguides.asu.edu
Cargill private largest
TradingMulti
Cargill private largest agribusiness US
Source: encyclopedia
Carry/roll yield ag futures
Carry TradeLong carry
Long backwardated agro contracts capture roll yield
Source: quantpedia.com
Cattle-corn spread
LivestockBoth
Cattle on corn feed; spread reflects margins
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
Cheese (CH) futures
DairyBoth
Cheese futures - growing demand
Source: cmegroup.com
Class III milk futures
DairyBoth
Cheese-grade milk for dairy producers
Source: cmegroup.com
Class III-IV spread
DairyBoth
Trade Class III vs Class IV milk spread
Source: encyclopedia
Class IV milk futures
DairyBoth
Butter-grade milk
Source: cmegroup.com
Cocoa (CC) directional
SoftsBoth
Cocoa - Ivory Coast/Ghana 70% production
Source: cmegroup.com
Cocoa squeeze 2024 short
SoftsShort
Massive 2024 cocoa squeeze; faded post-supply
Source: encyclopedia
Cocoa winter rally
SeasonalLong bias
Cocoa often rallies through Q1 on chocolate demand
Source: encyclopedia
Cocoa-coffee spread
SoftsBoth
Trade cocoa vs coffee softs spread
Source: encyclopedia
Coffee Arabica (KC)
SoftsBoth
ICE Arabica - Brazilian frost / drought trade
Source: cmegroup.com
Coffee Brazilian winter
SeasonalLong bias
Coffee often rallies June-August on Brazil winter
Source: encyclopedia
Coffee Robusta vs Arabica
SoftsBoth
Robusta-Arabica spread (Robusta cheaper espresso)
Source: encyclopedia
Coffee vol short premium
VolatilityShort vol
Sell coffee strangles for VRP harvesting
Source: quantpedia.com
Coffee-sugar spread
SoftsBoth
Coffee vs sugar Brazilian crop relationship
Source: encyclopedia
Corn outright directional
GrainsBoth
ZC corn futures directional based on USDA WASDE/inventories
Source: cmegroup.com
Corn straddle short
VolatilityShort vol
Sell ATM straddles in corn for theta
Source: quantpedia.com
Corn-Soybean ratio
GrainsBoth
Critical planting decision; ratio influences acres
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
Corn-Wheat spread (ZC-ZW)
GrainsBoth
Trade corn-wheat ratio (corn typically cheaper)
Source: guides.loc.gov
Corteva CTVA Dow-DuPont spinoff
SeedsLong
Corteva CTVA seeds + crop protection 2019
Source: encyclopedia
Cotton (CT) directional
SoftsBoth
ICE cotton - China/India/USA producers
Source: cmegroup.com
Cotton-corn rotation
SoftsBoth
Cotton vs corn acreage decisions
Source: encyclopedia
Crop year rollover
Risk MgmtRisk
Roll positions before contract expiry
Source: rjofutures.com
Crush spread (soy-meal-oil)
GrainsLong crush
Long soybeans short meal+oil to capture processor margin
Source: cmegroup.com
Cycle theory cattle (10-year)
LivestockBias
Cattle herd cycle ~10 years; supply rotates
Source: encyclopedia
DBA Invesco Agriculture
ETFsMulti
DBA Invesco DB Agriculture Fund
Source: encyclopedia
DBA agri ETF basket
Trend FollowingLong
Diversified ag ETF for thematic exposure
Source: encyclopedia
DEBUNKED 'grain prices always rise'
DEBUNKEDN/A
Inflation hedge claim oversimplified; many losing years
Source: encyclopedia
DEBUNKED astrology / lunar grains
DEBUNKEDN/A
Astrology / lunar trading no statistical edge
Source: encyclopedia
DEBUNKED single weather model
DEBUNKEDN/A
No single weather model gives reliable edge
Source: encyclopedia
Dean Foods bankrupt 2019
DairyMulti
Dean Foods bankrupt 2019 acquired DFA
Source: encyclopedia
Deere DE largest equipment
ProducersLong
John Deere DE largest ag equipment
Source: encyclopedia
Deliverable grade risk
Risk MgmtRisk
Different grades have premiums/discounts
Source: rjofutures.com
Direct futures position sizing
ApplicationRisk
Cap risk per trade at 1-2% of account
Source: rjofutures.com
El Nino flooding trade
GrainsBoth
El Nino linked to floods/wet weather; mixed impact
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
FMC Corp FMC crop protection
SeedsMulti
FMC Corp FMC crop protection
Source: encyclopedia
Feeder cattle (GF)
LivestockBoth
Feeder cattle - feedlot weight class
Source: cmegroup.com
Fertilizer companies (NTR MOS)
EquitiesLong
Long fertilizer producers in ag bull cycles
Source: encyclopedia
Food processors (TSN HRL)
EquitiesLong
Long food processors for defensive exposure
Source: encyclopedia
Frost Brazilian risk hedging
VolatilityHedge
Hedge with coffee calls during Brazilian winter
Source: quantpedia.com
Frozen Concentrated OJ (FCOJ)
SoftsBoth
FCOJ - Florida hurricane/freeze events
Source: cmegroup.com
Hard Red Spring Wheat (HRS)
GrainsBoth
Spring wheat for Minneapolis bread market
Source: cmegroup.com
Hard Red Winter Wheat (KE)
GrainsBoth
Hard red winter wheat - protein grade differential
Source: cmegroup.com
Harvest pressure pattern
GrainsShort bias
Harvest brings supply pressure - typically prices weak Sep-Nov
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
Hog and pig report
LivestockBoth
Quarterly USDA hog inventory
Source: stonex.com
Hog cycle (3-4 year)
LivestockBias
Pork cycle 3-4 years; rebuilding/liquidation
Source: encyclopedia
Hog-to-bean spread
LivestockBoth
Trade hogs vs feed (soybeans)
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
Hog-to-cattle spread
LivestockBoth
Trade pork vs beef demand divergence
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
ICL Israel Chemicals potash
FertilizerMulti
ICL Israel Chemicals potash + bromine
Source: encyclopedia
JBS JBSAY Brazilian largest global
MeatMulti
JBS JBSAY Brazilian largest meat global
Source: encyclopedia
K+S German potash
FertilizerMulti
K+S German potash chloride
Source: encyclopedia
Kubota KUBTY Japanese
ProducersMulti
Kubota KUBTY Japanese ag equipment
Source: encyclopedia
La Nina drought trade
GrainsLong
La Nina linked to drought; supports grain prices
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
Lean hogs outright
LivestockBoth
HE hogs - cycles + China demand
Source: cmegroup.com
Limit move days awareness
Risk MgmtRisk
Limit-up/limit-down halts can trap positions
Source: rjofutures.com
Live cattle outright
LivestockBoth
LE futures driven by herd size/demand
Source: cmegroup.com
Live cattle vs feeder spread
LivestockBoth
Trade live vs feeder for feedlot margin
Source: cmegroup.com
Louis Dreyfus private
TradingMulti
Louis Dreyfus Company LDC private commodity
Source: encyclopedia
Lumber (LBR/LBS)
SoftsBoth
Random length lumber - housing demand proxy
Source: cmegroup.com
MOO VanEck Agribusiness
ETFsLong
MOO VanEck Agribusiness ETF
Source: encyclopedia
Mad cow / disease outbreak
LivestockShort
Disease outbreaks crash cattle prices
Source: encyclopedia
Marfrig Brazilian beef
MeatMulti
Marfrig Brazilian beef #2
Source: encyclopedia
Margin requirements 5-10x
Risk MgmtRisk
Be aware of margin spikes during volatility
Source: rjofutures.com
Mini lumber (LBR)
SoftsBoth
Smaller-size lumber for retail traders
Source: cmegroup.com
Mini-corn for retail
GrainsBoth
Smaller-size corn contracts for retail traders
Source: cmegroup.com
Mosaic MOS phosphate + potash
FertilizerMulti
Mosaic MOS phosphate + potash Florida
Source: encyclopedia
Nonfat dry milk (NF)
DairyBoth
NDM futures for export markets
Source: cmegroup.com
Nutrien NTR largest fertilizer
FertilizerLong
Nutrien NTR largest fertilizer producer Potash+
Source: encyclopedia
Oats (ZO) directional
GrainsBoth
Oats - small market susceptible to manipulation
Source: cmegroup.com
Old crop summer rally
SeasonalLong bias
May-July rally on tight stocks pre-harvest
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
Old crop vs new crop
GrainsBoth
July (old) vs December (new) corn calendar
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
Pork bellies historical
LivestockBoth
Pork bellies - bacon trade (delisted 2011)
Source: encyclopedia
Position limits awareness
Risk MgmtRisk
Speculator position limits per CFTC
Source: rjofutures.com
Pre-harvest top mid-Oct
SeasonalShort bias
Grains often top mid-October pre-harvest pressure
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
Quarterly stocks report
GrainsBoth
USDA Grain Stocks reports moves market
Source: stonex.com
Reverse crush short
GrainsShort crush
Short soybeans long products when crush widens
Source: cmegroup.com
Rough Rice (ZR)
GrainsBoth
Rice futures for Asian demand exposure
Source: cmegroup.com
Russia-Ukraine wheat thematic
GrainsLong bias
Geopolitical risk wheat (Russia-Ukraine 2022)
Source: guides.loc.gov
SOYB soybean ETN
Trend FollowingLong
Soybean-tracking ETN
Source: encyclopedia
Saputo SAP Canadian dairy
DairyMulti
Saputo SAP Canadian dairy major
Source: encyclopedia
Seed/biotech (BAYRY CTVA)
EquitiesLong
Long ag biotech for global food demand thematic
Source: encyclopedia
Soybean meal vs soybean oil
GrainsBoth
Trade meal vs oil based on demand divergence
Source: cmegroup.com
Soybean oil bull spread
GrainsBoth
Trade soybean oil for biofuel demand
Source: cmegroup.com
Soybean outright directional
GrainsBoth
ZS soybeans driven by US/Brazil/Argentina production
Source: cmegroup.com
Speculator positioning
ApplicationBoth
Track CFTC COT for speculator/commercial
Source: quantpedia.com
Spring soybean acreage trade
GrainsBoth
Trade soy in spring around planting decisions
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
Storage cost factor
Carry TradeBias
Storage costs reflected in calendar spreads
Source: quantpedia.com
Storage hedge by farmer
GrainsHedge
Hedge grain in storage with futures
Source: rjofutures.com
Storage/delivery awareness
Risk MgmtRisk
Avoid holding into delivery (require physical)
Source: rjofutures.com
Sugar #11 (SB) world raw
SoftsBoth
World raw sugar - Brazil/India production
Source: cmegroup.com
Sugar #11 vs #16 spread
SoftsBoth
World vs US sugar (price differences)
Source: encyclopedia
Sugar #16 (SF) US domestic
SoftsBoth
US domestic sugar - government supported
Source: cmegroup.com
Sugar Brazilian harvest
SeasonalShort bias
Brazilian harvest May-Nov pressures sugar
Source: encyclopedia
Syngenta ChemChina 2017
SeedsMulti
Syngenta ChemChina acquired 2017 private
Source: encyclopedia
Tractor/equipment (DE AGCO)
EquitiesLong
Long ag equipment cyclical names
Source: encyclopedia
Trend-following ag futures
Trend FollowingTrend
Apply CTA-style trend to ag baskets
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
Tyson Foods TSN largest US
MeatMulti
Tyson Foods TSN largest US chicken/beef/pork
Source: encyclopedia
USDA WASDE report trade
GrainsBoth
Trade WASDE monthly report on production estimates
Source: stonex.com
USDA cattle on feed report
LivestockBoth
Monthly USDA Cattle on Feed
Source: stonex.com
USDA crop progress weekly
GrainsBoth
Weekly Mon evening crop conditions report
Source: stonex.com
WASDE pre-event vol long
VolatilityLong vol
Long vol pre-WASDE for expansion
Source: quantpedia.com
WEAT wheat ETN
Trend FollowingLong
Wheat-tracking ETN for retail
Source: encyclopedia
Wheat outright directional
GrainsBoth
ZW wheat futures with focus on Black Sea/global supply
Source: cmegroup.com
Wheat-Corn spread historical
GrainsBoth
Wheat trades premium to corn most years
Source: guides.loc.gov
Winter rally seasonal grains
GrainsLong bias
Grains often rally Dec-Feb on demand + low harvest pressure
Source: quantifiedstrategies.com
Yara YARIY Norwegian
FertilizerMulti
Yara International YARIY Norwegian fertilizer
Source: encyclopedia
An encyclopedia of publicly documented strategies for education. YCAI does not recommend, endorse, or trade any of these. Not investment advice.